As discussed in previous post, NIFTY managed to close above 5675. MACD and Slow Moving Averages crossed positively providing support to the rally. Now NIFTY is clear buy for a minimum target of 6000 with support placed at 5555.
Tuesday 29 March 2011
Wednesday 23 March 2011
Nifty - Medium Term
Though NIFTY trying to reverse its down trend, as long as it close and sustain below 5675 the trend will remain down. However a sustained close above 5675 will bring in 6000+ on NIFTY very quickly. Journey till 5675 seems to be difficult and on passing through it is safe for next 300-500 points. So advocate caution on journey in next 200 points for safe journey ahead.
Tuesday 15 March 2011
NIFTY - 15th March
10:13 IST Seems like struggling book profit at 5420 now.
09:55 IST Current price is 5403 move the Trailing Stop Loss to 5400and move the profit target to 5430
09:45 IST Buy NIFTY (Fututres) at current price of 5380 target 1 5410
09:55 IST Current price is 5403 move the Trailing Stop Loss to 5400and move the profit target to 5430
09:45 IST Buy NIFTY (Fututres) at current price of 5380 target 1 5410
Monday 14 March 2011
NIFTY - 14th March
15:20 IST Ummmm......Trailing Stop hit at 5554. So profit = 60 points.
15:10 IST Since second target at 5561 is very close by let us move the Trailing Stop Loss to 5554 (Current Price 5560)
14:55 IST Price moved above first target of 5548 (based on Fibonnacci Retracement) so now let us move our Trailing Stop Loss to just below it at 5544
14:40 IST Notice the blue arrows along the yellow horizontal line, since price retraced from those levels earlier from 5538, though currently nifty futures trading above let us move our Trailin Stop Loss to 5534.
14:25 IST Since NIFTY (Futures) is trading above Friday's high of 5512 and also crossed above todays earlier high of 5522, let us move our Stop Loss to just below today's ealier high to 5520 (Current price 5530+)
13:53 IST NIFTY moved to 5507 so let us bring up our Stop Loss to 5500.
13:43 IST Since NIFTY is not going below 5474, let us buy again at 5494 at our earlier buy price.
13:43 IST Oops.... hit trailing stoploss at break even...!
13:15 IST Europian Futures opened in -ve and struggling, so let us move our stoploss to break even point. Those who may not want to take chance can close at current price of 5508 for a profit of 14 points.
12:14 IST Nifty is struggling near yesterday's high incidentally it was also multiple high that was rejected on friday also. A break and sustinance above this can only take nifty high from here. Supports placed at 5494 - 5475 - 5460 for today. Buy NIFTY now at current price of 5494 with 10 points stoploss. 1st target is 5512 then 5565.
15:10 IST Since second target at 5561 is very close by let us move the Trailing Stop Loss to 5554 (Current Price 5560)
14:55 IST Price moved above first target of 5548 (based on Fibonnacci Retracement) so now let us move our Trailing Stop Loss to just below it at 5544
13:43 IST Since NIFTY is not going below 5474, let us buy again at 5494 at our earlier buy price.
13:43 IST Oops.... hit trailing stoploss at break even...!
13:15 IST Europian Futures opened in -ve and struggling, so let us move our stoploss to break even point. Those who may not want to take chance can close at current price of 5508 for a profit of 14 points.
12:14 IST Nifty is struggling near yesterday's high incidentally it was also multiple high that was rejected on friday also. A break and sustinance above this can only take nifty high from here. Supports placed at 5494 - 5475 - 5460 for today. Buy NIFTY now at current price of 5494 with 10 points stoploss. 1st target is 5512 then 5565.
Sunday 13 March 2011
Saturday 12 March 2011
Friday 11 March 2011
US Market update
Price Chart after the post "For Learning"
For Learning: Moving Averages crossed +ve and then price crossed above yesterday's low ie 11964 and Dow jumped nearly 50 points with in 10 minutes!
Dowjones is struggling under yesterday's low for almost all the day today, which is -ve for today as of now. If it has to reverse its losses and turn higher for the day it must go above 11965 and stay above it. For today it has support placed at 11920, a break and close below this will not be good for coming days. Though price is falling today, it is forming higher highs higher lows trend, which is good and if price sustain above 11965 by late after noon (US time) it can recover well towards end of the session. And a break above 12050 is a good sign for coming days.
CRUDE OIL Update
Since our first update on Crude Oil, it fell around $7 and trading below $100. Now it is taking support at its earlier medium term resistance area $99.6, now we must watch if it break this.
NIFTY - 11th March
14:40 IST: Oops...NIFTY hit our stoploss at 5450 and gone up. No problem, we could still make 22 points profit. NIFTY is now attempting to turn +ve for the day. So a re-test to levels 5425 could be another buying opportunity with Stop Loss placed at 5400
14:27 IST: Oops...While writing the following post price moved past 5460, so let us increase our stoploss to 5450 and wait. Even our stoploss is hit we will still have 20 points profit.
14:25 IST: Since NIFTY is trying to recover from its lows let us move the target to 5475 and put a stoploss at 5445 so that we will not lose the profit already made. Current Price = 5447
14:10 IST: NIFTY is bouncing off its support on very short term support of 5428, hence attempt a long here for a target of 5448.
04:00 IST: After near 2% fall overnight in global markets, suddenly all eyes are on support levels. As far as NIFTY is concerned supports are placed at 5400-5350 and 5200 for tomorrow.
As far as medium term is concerned, the nifty has a lot go down, as long as it stay below 5750. Chances are towards 5000 and 4750. At this point of time though it looks very unlikely, nothing can be ignored in volatile markets. However, a test to these levels will be one of the best opportunity for Medium to Long Term INVESTORS, even for current year Tax Planning (To buy Equity Linked Savings Schemes of Mutual Funds)
14:27 IST: Oops...While writing the following post price moved past 5460, so let us increase our stoploss to 5450 and wait. Even our stoploss is hit we will still have 20 points profit.
14:25 IST: Since NIFTY is trying to recover from its lows let us move the target to 5475 and put a stoploss at 5445 so that we will not lose the profit already made. Current Price = 5447
14:10 IST: NIFTY is bouncing off its support on very short term support of 5428, hence attempt a long here for a target of 5448.
As far as medium term is concerned, the nifty has a lot go down, as long as it stay below 5750. Chances are towards 5000 and 4750. At this point of time though it looks very unlikely, nothing can be ignored in volatile markets. However, a test to these levels will be one of the best opportunity for Medium to Long Term INVESTORS, even for current year Tax Planning (To buy Equity Linked Savings Schemes of Mutual Funds)
Thursday 10 March 2011
CRUDE OIL Update
20:58 IST: We wrote on 7th March that crude will slowly drop towards 100$ and 90$ when it was trading around 106$ level, now at the time of writing this the price quoting at 101.2$
Dow Jones - US Markets
20:35 IST: Dow Jones after a long time fell nearly 2% (at the time of this writig)...how ever it has support at near 11980, it is interesting to see what it does here. We feel it will hold here, however a break below this has target near 11800 unlikely for now due to high liquidity in the markets.
If we follow China Index's pattern that will be followed by Dow after 3 months, DJ should correct at leat 20% from its recent peak at around 12300, that is almost till 10000 between February 2011 and August 2011. It is interesting to see how market behaves during this time! Dow formed its peak of 12300 in February after 3 months from the time Chinese Index formed its top in November, and correcting from February ie after 3 months!!!
NIFTY - 10th March
15:30 IST: NIFTY after flattening with in 15-20 points range towards end, finally closed just above 5500 (Futures). The recovery towards end of the day set a positive tone for tomorrow. For the day it set double top at 5511 making the level very critical for tomorrow. Important range for tomorrow will be 5480-5512, breakout on either direction will set a clear trend in that direction for intra-day.
13:47 IST: For Learning: Arrows marked on the charts are the reverssal candles. First upward arrow invalidated shorting at/below 5475. Second arrow gave another chance to exit at Breakeven even if we had entered short below 5475. Current price action reversing from 38.2% retracement of yesterday's Price Action (PA) signal that NIFTY is still in -ve bias for the day.
12:23 IST: NIFTY turned lower for the day due to global weakness and other -ve news flow. As long as NIFTY stay below 5495 bias is -ve for the day and a sustained drop below 5475 indicate weakness. If NIFTY can manage to stay above 5495 till 14:30 IST then we can expect a pull back towards 5525-5550-5575 resistance areas. No trade for now, can consider short below 5475 with 5500 Stoploss (But should analyse the price action at 5475. If short, ensure that bullish engulfing or bullish pin bars are NOT forming)
13:47 IST: For Learning: Arrows marked on the charts are the reverssal candles. First upward arrow invalidated shorting at/below 5475. Second arrow gave another chance to exit at Breakeven even if we had entered short below 5475. Current price action reversing from 38.2% retracement of yesterday's Price Action (PA) signal that NIFTY is still in -ve bias for the day.
12:23 IST: NIFTY turned lower for the day due to global weakness and other -ve news flow. As long as NIFTY stay below 5495 bias is -ve for the day and a sustained drop below 5475 indicate weakness. If NIFTY can manage to stay above 5495 till 14:30 IST then we can expect a pull back towards 5525-5550-5575 resistance areas. No trade for now, can consider short below 5475 with 5500 Stoploss (But should analyse the price action at 5475. If short, ensure that bullish engulfing or bullish pin bars are NOT forming)
Wednesday 9 March 2011
NIFTY - 9th March
15:15 IST: For Learning: Engulfing candle at the resistance prompted us to say "Now the Nifty Futures is at it's daily Resistance 1 at 5565. Aggressive traders can short here" Observe this in the following chart. Also observe Support Area to books aggressive profits.
15:00 IST: As discussed below, since bias was up NIFTY moved up in past 30 minutes. We did not take any trade as our priority was "Capital Protection" in choppy market. Now the Nifty Futures is at it's daily Resistance 1 at 5565. Aggressive traders can short here.
14:30 IST: NIFTY has turned choppy along with all other world markets today. Though bias seems to be still +ve for the day, it is in 'No Trade' zone as of now.
15:00 IST: As discussed below, since bias was up NIFTY moved up in past 30 minutes. We did not take any trade as our priority was "Capital Protection" in choppy market. Now the Nifty Futures is at it's daily Resistance 1 at 5565. Aggressive traders can short here.
14:30 IST: NIFTY has turned choppy along with all other world markets today. Though bias seems to be still +ve for the day, it is in 'No Trade' zone as of now.
Tuesday 8 March 2011
CRUDE OIL
After all news of unrest in Middle East & Africa, crude oil prices zoomed from 90$ to near 107$ with in 2 weeks. Now, since all that bad news is being digested in to day to day life, crude seems to be realising its fundamentals once again. The price has dropped from near 107$ to 103.5$ with in a day. Unless the news takes front seat again, crude should now slowly drop below 100$ or even 90$, before it finds its way to $120.
NIFTY for 8th March 2011
13:27 IST: Closing bell... NIFTY Futures seems to be closing near 5540. Those who have not closed positions at 5544 (Open price was 5515) earlier can close now. Though contnuation of this up move expected at tomorrow 's open also, over night risk is not adviceble at this point of time where there are lots of news about civil unrest etc are doing rounds.
14:43 IST: Current Price 5544 (Entry price was 5515), low risk traders can book profit (29 points)
14:41 IST: Not trending at enough speed, so move the Stop Loss to Break Even. Current price is 5532 and entry price was 5515
14:15 IST: High risk trades can buy NIFTY Futures now at 5515 with a stoploss at 5490
13:20 IST: Though everything looking "All is Well" at this time on the screen, charts are near -ve cross over. It will be interesting to see what do they do in next 30-60 minutes. Right now, NO trades, just observation. Patience pays
14:43 IST: Current Price 5544 (Entry price was 5515), low risk traders can book profit (29 points)
14:41 IST: Not trending at enough speed, so move the Stop Loss to Break Even. Current price is 5532 and entry price was 5515
14:15 IST: High risk trades can buy NIFTY Futures now at 5515 with a stoploss at 5490
13:20 IST: Though everything looking "All is Well" at this time on the screen, charts are near -ve cross over. It will be interesting to see what do they do in next 30-60 minutes. Right now, NO trades, just observation. Patience pays
Sunday 6 March 2011
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Nifty Technical Chart
15:30 IST Wrap-up of the day, as against our target of 30-40 points profit NIFTY managed to goup only 25 points after our entry (5475) then came down and finally closed at 5482. Overall, OK day only!!!
15:15 IST Oops.... as against out target of 30-40 points, price went up only 25 points and showing signs of coming down, hence let us book our profit here with 15-20 points profit.
14:55 IST as we wanted NIFTY stayed above 5450 by 2:30PM IST, so buy NIFTY Futures at 5475 now (14:55 IST) for a possible 30 - 40 points profit today beore the market close a Stop Loss is must at 5450.
13:30 IST : NIFTY after a drop of over 2% as predicted below, now at 1:30PM trying an attempt to recover as shown in the following chart. If NIFTY can survuve 5450 level by 2:30PM the recovery will be significant towards 5500 level. Or else fall towards 4350 cannot be ruled out.
10 AM IST : As posted below NIFTY at the moment down nearly 2% today. Stay tuned for updates.........
Learn Fibonnacci Technical Analysis
Nifty looks like formed a double top at around 5600 levels and also failed to cross and close above 32.8 retracement. This signal a bearish sentiment in the market.
15:15 IST Oops.... as against out target of 30-40 points, price went up only 25 points and showing signs of coming down, hence let us book our profit here with 15-20 points profit.
14:55 IST as we wanted NIFTY stayed above 5450 by 2:30PM IST, so buy NIFTY Futures at 5475 now (14:55 IST) for a possible 30 - 40 points profit today beore the market close a Stop Loss is must at 5450.
13:30 IST : NIFTY after a drop of over 2% as predicted below, now at 1:30PM trying an attempt to recover as shown in the following chart. If NIFTY can survuve 5450 level by 2:30PM the recovery will be significant towards 5500 level. Or else fall towards 4350 cannot be ruled out.
10 AM IST : As posted below NIFTY at the moment down nearly 2% today. Stay tuned for updates.........
Learn Fibonnacci Technical Analysis
Nifty looks like formed a double top at around 5600 levels and also failed to cross and close above 32.8 retracement. This signal a bearish sentiment in the market.
Indian Market Analysis for coming week
The market had a volatile session and the Nifty closed at 5536, up by 14 points and the March futures were quoting at a premium of 17 points. Post-Budget , the market has shown a sharp move upwards responding positively to the Budget announcements which proved better than expected. The Nifty had seen huge short rollovers to the March series on subdued sentiments due to the Middle East turmoil and low Budget expectations. Any early resolution to the Middle-East tension could provide a positive trigger in the days to come which will encourage long build-up as well as short-covering . The F&O data suggest bias toward the banking, infra and metals sectors.
The auto sector also has shown good resurgence on the back of strong short-covering and Tata Motors & M&M have shown good momentum. Going forward, the market could consolidate at levels of 5450-5500 before rallying to 5600 where resistance could be expected. Beaten-down sectors, like infra and capital goods, could see a revival in sentiment and could be the sectors to watch out for. The oil sector could provide a sharp upward move and the three oil marketing companies appear attractive.
NIFTY STRATEGY
After a sharp rise, the market could go into a consolidation mode and with premium still ruling at high levels, one could adopt a bull spread strategy. Buy a call of March 5400 strike price which is quoting at around Rs 224 and simultaneously sell a 5600 strike price call at around 96.
STOCK-SPECIFIC
Buy a BPCL call at strike price of 560 ruling at around Rs 31, as the stock appears oversold and the same could be held for a maximum period of around 15 days. Alternatively , a HPCL call of strike price of 320 also could be considered for the same holding period. The same is ruling at around Rs 20.
The auto sector also has shown good resurgence on the back of strong short-covering and Tata Motors & M&M have shown good momentum. Going forward, the market could consolidate at levels of 5450-5500 before rallying to 5600 where resistance could be expected. Beaten-down sectors, like infra and capital goods, could see a revival in sentiment and could be the sectors to watch out for. The oil sector could provide a sharp upward move and the three oil marketing companies appear attractive.
NIFTY STRATEGY
After a sharp rise, the market could go into a consolidation mode and with premium still ruling at high levels, one could adopt a bull spread strategy. Buy a call of March 5400 strike price which is quoting at around Rs 224 and simultaneously sell a 5600 strike price call at around 96.
STOCK-SPECIFIC
Buy a BPCL call at strike price of 560 ruling at around Rs 31, as the stock appears oversold and the same could be held for a maximum period of around 15 days. Alternatively , a HPCL call of strike price of 320 also could be considered for the same holding period. The same is ruling at around Rs 20.
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Please click here to learn the very basics of technical analysis. Technical Analysis methods & techniques work the same way for Trading Equity (Indian or Foreign), Commdity or Forex. Meaning, once you learn technical analysis you can apply it on any market.
Here, in my blog I will be posting some ineteresting studies about Equity, Commodity & Forex Markets (Indian & Foreign). Also some trading calls every now and then....so keep watching this space for trading calls as well.
Please click here to learn the very basics of technical analysis. Technical Analysis methods & techniques work the same way for Trading Equity (Indian or Foreign), Commdity or Forex. Meaning, once you learn technical analysis you can apply it on any market.
Here, in my blog I will be posting some ineteresting studies about Equity, Commodity & Forex Markets (Indian & Foreign). Also some trading calls every now and then....so keep watching this space for trading calls as well.
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